COP29 Host Azerbaijan Is Moving Backward On Its Own Climate Pledges

Article 4.3 of the 2015 Paris Agreement is a simple one. It says that every time a country issues a new nationally determined contribution (NDC), the pledges each signatory to the agreement periodically makes on the road toward a net-zero world, it “will represent a progression beyond the Party’s then current” plan. Each new NDC should reflect that country’s “highest possible ambition” in terms of emissions cuts.

In short: do better this time than you did last time. Otherwise, there’s not much point.

One would hope, of course, that all 195 countries that have signed on to Paris would follow this basic tenet. One would really hope that the country tapped to host the annual United Nations climate conference from which that very agreement sprung forth almost a decade ago would follow it. One would be disappointed.

An analysis released on Wednesday by Climate Action Tracker, which does exactly what its name suggests and monitors national policy moves as they relate to global emissions and temperature targets, notes that COP29 host Azerbaijan is one of only a few countries whose latest NDC actually took a step backward.

“Azerbaijan does not include a transition away from fossil fuels in its NDC or in the COP29 agenda,” said Ana Missirliu, of the NewClimate Institute, which partners with the Climate Action Tracker, in a press release. “This is not the kind of leadership we need in this crucial time of climate action as the world is increasingly being hit by catastrophic, climate-fueled weather events.”

The country’s latest NDC, released in 2023, removed its 2030 emissions target completely, according to the new analysis. Its policies suggest that national emissions will actually rise by as much as 40 percent over 2020 levels by the end of this decade, “meaning its current policies are headed in completely the wrong direction for meeting its own weak climate targets.”

Azerbaijan gets more of its national revenue from oil and gas than even last year’s COP host, the United Arab Emirates. And it shows not even a tiny hint of a desire to eventually turn off that spigot. Earlier this year, president Ilham Aliyev gave a speech to various European ministers in Berlin and called his country’s oil and gas reserves “a gift of the gods.” The country has enormous expansion plans for the industry, which tracks with the retreating NDC ambition.

Still, its a jarring bit of cognitive dissonance to watch the thousands of delegates and climate activists and advocates soon descend on Baku as the host spins up its oil and gas business to record levels. In March, the incoming COP president Mukhtar Babayev (pictured above) wrote an optimistic op-ed, expressing hope for a successful conference this year and listing a few positive actions Azerbaijan is undertaking, including signing on to the Global Methane Pledge and expanding some major renewable energy projects.

One line stood out, though, in light of the country’s overall one-step-forward, two-steps-back dance: “[I]t helps when a COP host practices what others are preaching.” Indeed.