Elizabeth Warren Leads Joe Biden in Latest Iowa Poll

The upward trajectory of Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts continued this weekend as she surpassed Democratic frontrunner Joe Biden for the first time in an Iowa poll.

According to the latest Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll, published on Saturday, Warren leads Biden with 22% of likely Democratic caucusgoers naming her as their first choice for president. Biden is close behind at 20%, well within the margin of error.

Biden had led in each of the Register’s three previous polls this election cycle, the newspaper said.

Sen. Bernie Sanders polled in third place at 11%. None of the other Democratic candidates reached double digits.

However, the newspaper noted that 63% of those surveyed said they could still be persuaded to back a different candidate. “The universe is not locked in,” J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., which conducted the poll, told the newspaper.

Additionally, 71% of likely Democratic caucusgoers said they are considering supporting Warren in some manner, a number that is much higher than for Biden (60%), Buttigieg (55%), Harris (55%), and Sanders (50%).

Warren’s strong polling numbers in Iowa follow a considerable uptick in the number of people attending her campaign rallies lately. In late August, Warren drew the largest crowd of her presidential campaign at the time, an estimated 15,000 people, according to Bloomberg.

Then, she topped that number last Monday at a rally in New York City’s Washington Square Park, drawing an estimated crowd of 20,000 people.

With almost five months to go for the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses on Feb. 3, there’s still plenty of time for those numbers to shift. But this latest poll shows that the common narrative in mainstream media of Biden crushing everyone else in terms of so-called electability in the Midwest, and on the likelihood of beating Donald Trump, may not be such a strong argument.

According to the Register, Biden and Sanders “have hit new lows [in Iowa polling], though they still outshine 16 other candidates.” The two had led polling in first and second place, respectively, since last December. “Part of Sanders’ problem: Warren has eaten into some of his key constituencies,” the newspaper said.

Meanwhile, some of the other Democratic candidates seem to be reaching the end of the line for their campaigns. New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio announced on Friday that he was dropping out of the race. And Sen. Cory Booker’s campaign announced on Saturday that it needs to raise $1.7 million by Sept. 30 in order to stay in the race and remain competitive.

In terms of fundraising, Biden, Warren, Sanders, and Buttigieg largely dominate the field, according to Reuters.