How Many People Will Die at the Olympics?

It is very hot in Paris. As of Tuesday afternoon, the French national weather agency has most of the country in an “orange alert” status (“Soyez très vigilant/Be very careful”), with temperatures in the upper 90s for the Olympic host city. Parts of Southern France, where a few Olympic venues are located, reached 105 degrees.

The heat wave is expected to persist for at least a few days, if shifting northward somewhat, and with another 12 days or so of competition and the millions of spectators it brings, a question arises: How many people will die?

This is not to suggest something so dramatic as an athlete dropping dead on a tennis court. The athletes themselves are in top physical condition, and while obviously anyone can suffer heat stroke, they are surrounded by medical professionals and trainers and the like and are less likely to die than the people watching them. But even then, we are unlikely to know the answer for some time, as heat-related deaths tend to take weeks or months to fully adjudicate.

But people will die. Last summer, authorities estimate that 5,000 people in France perished thanks to extreme heat; of those 3,700 were over the age of 75. A study of 2022’s summer death toll found more than 60,000 heat-related deaths across Europe, and though Italy, Spain, and Germany’s tolls were higher, France again saw almost 5,000 people die. And then there is the famous 2003 heat wave, which killed almost 15,000 people in the country over just a few weeks, and 70,000 across the continent.

In fact, among all European capitals, a 2023 study found that Paris has the highest risk for excess heat-related mortality as the climate warms. The heat of the last few summers and this Olympic week is now the norm. The French weather agency now expects this sort of heat to repeat every year, and get worse in the years to come; before 30 years ago or so, it would have been largely unprecedented. On Wednesday, the agency expects that “the heat remains overwhelming over a large part of the country.”

The athletes at the Olympics have obviously taken notice; there are complaints about the lack of cold water at various venues, and strategies for staying cold ranging from cold baths to ice cream. For spectators, the advice is the same as always — stay hydrated, stay out of the sun as much as possible, stay hydrated, and stay hydrated. The final, morbid tally from these two weeks of heat and competition will become clear soon enough.