Israel’s Bombing of Lebanon Risks Sparking a Larger Regional War

On the evening of July 30th, the residential neighborhood of Haret Hreik, inside the southern suburb of Beirut, was rocked by an Israeli drone strike. The attack, which resulted in the assassination of Hezb’Allah Senior Commander Sayyed Fouad Ali Shokr, also killed three women and two children, Hassan and Amira Fadlallah, who were reportedly found clutching one another amidst the rubble. The raid was strong enough to be felt in surrounding neighborhoods in the suburb, shaking buildings and disrupting a sense of calm felt in Beirut’s bustling Dahye.

Photo of the site of the attack by Roqayah Chamseddine

That night, smoke still billowing and first responders still tending to the scene, crowds formed outside in defiance, with shouts of “Labayk ya Hussain!” — “We are at your service, Oh Hussain!” — and slogans held in solidarity with Palestine. The following day, members of the Lebanese Army filled the area as emergency services continued sifting through the rubble in hopes of finding those unaccounted for—a local security official told Splinter “we have to keep looking, until we know that everyone is found.”

Photo by Roqayah Chamseddine

Despite the violent attack there was a sense of relative normalcy in Haret Hreik the next day, with crowds still gathered to observe the destroyed building. A resting medical responder who had been at the site for two days commented that life had mostly returned to normal. “Because we put all our trust in God, and that is sufficient enough,” the responder said. “We aren’t shaken. We mourn but keep going, because we must.”

Clutching a suitcase and carrying his daughter on his shoulder, Muhammad, a waiter at a local restaurant in the area, said that while he had no fear about possible Israeli raids, he was moving his family out of the area. “Another raid is likely, so I am moving my wife and children from the suburb for the time being. No one is fleeing the Dahye—and I insist this is made clear, that no one is running away—but I have to keep the safety of my family in mind, and I will do whatever it takes to keep them safe.”

When asked if he blamed the resistance, namely Hezb’Allah, for his current circumstances, Muhammad said “Are we any better than the people of Gaza? These sacrifices are not just for us, but for Palestine. If I lose my home or my life, this is my sacrifice. Look around you, we are all the resistance, every one of us,” he said. “Israel is not just killing members of Hezb’Allah, which is what they want the world to believe, they are killing our women and our children because they are cowards on the field. They can’t face our men, so they try to sow fear in our hearts with every raid and every sound barrier attack.” 

There is genuine concern in Beirut’s southern suburb that another attack is coming, with some speculating that it will all depend on how Hezb’Allah responds to the killing of Senior Commander Sayyed Shokr. On August 6th, Secretary General of Hezb’Allah Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah emphasized that the response is “inevitable,” asserting that “Our response is certainly coming and will be strong, impactful, and effective. There are still days and nights ahead of us, and we await the battlefield.”

Along with the Lebanese resistance, Yemen and Iran have also promised a response to Israel’s attacks—Yemen, for the Hodeidah port attack on its oil tanks and a power plant, which resulted in the deaths of at least three people, and Iran for Israel’s assassination of Ismail Haniye, chairman of Hamas’ political bureau and the top negotiator on the ceasefire deal, on July 31st in Tehran. Mohammad Abdul-Salam, head of Yemen’s negotiation delegation, affirmed that the attack on Hodeidah “will only increase the determination and the steadfastness of the Yemeni people and its brave armed forces.”

With tensions rising in the region as Israel’s genocide in Gaza continues, and with pressure building along its northern front, the likelihood of a wider war enveloping the Red Sea-Gulf-Mediterranean triangle is rising. In an interview with LBC News, Lebanese researcher Dr. Hosam Matar argued that a regional war threatens to bring about a global economic collapse.

“A global war is akin to a nuclear war in the region to some extent,” he said. “The sheer magnitude of the flames will be devastatingly destructive to everything in the area.” 

The rhetoric from the resistance axis echoes this; the group has drawn its line in the sand and that is Gaza. In the words of Brigadier General Yahya Saree, spokesperson for Yemen’s Armed Forces, “We will not compromise on this [red line]. We will strike targets that the enemies cannot imagine and have not thought of. If the enemy continues its aggression against Gaza, there will be consequences that neither the Yemeni people nor the Americans imagined.”

Translation: “You will not weaken our resolve. We are committed to our resistance.”

In Lebanon’s south, Israel is continuing with its relentless attacks. Political researcher Dr. Mohammad Hasan Sweidan, a native of the southern Lebanese village of Hanin, who recently had his family home razed after an Israeli attack, said that despite rising tensions, he does not see an expansion of the current war. “I believe all parties of the conflict want to avoid this kind of war and they prefer going towards ‘fighting days.’ The resistance in Gaza is still able to resist the enemy and the latest proof is the rockets fired from Gaza yesterday.”

Until now, Sweidan explains, no party has a viable reason to expand the war. Still, there have been predictions that a collective strike by resistance axis parties—namely Yemen, Lebanon, Iraq, and Iran—is a possibility, especially as days go by without retaliation to the Israeli assassinations of Commander Sayyed Fouad Shokr and Ismail Haniye. Sweidan said that the resistance axis is trying to limit Israel’s leverage in the region by controlling the “escalation ladder,” and also to deter it against future strikes. 

“The war we are facing now is not only related to Gaza. An essential part of it is to support Palestinians, but there is another sphere, the regional sphere,” Sweidan said. “Today, the two opposing parties are fighting for the future of the region. The axis of resistance is fighting to get rid of colonialism in its modern shape, and imperialism which has stolen our resources. The price people are willing to pay is for a great goal: fighting Western colonialism and imperialism.”