Israel’s Violations in Lebanon Cast Doubt on Its Willingness to Adhere to a Ceasefire

The 2024 ceasefire reached on November 27th between Israel and Lebanon is nearing its final days, right as Israel and Hamas announced they agreed to a ceasefire which will begin this Sunday. The 60 day truce was designed to end 13 months of hostilities between the Lebanese Resistance and Israel, but the conditions have been violated on an almost daily basis by Israel—from bombing campaigns across South Lebanon, including most recently in the villages of Aitaa al-Shaab and Mays al-Jabal, to Israeli forces entering Lebanese territory and executing demolition operations designed to leave the people of South Lebanon displaced, designating their villages as “restricted areas.”

On the morning of November 27th, just hours after the ceasefire was confirmed, Israeli forces opened fire on Lebanese citizens in South Lebanon attempting to return to their homes. Israeli ceasefire violations have now surpassed 1,000, and despite the Lebanese government submitting a formal complaint to the United Nations over the violation of UN Resolution 1701, the intrusions have continued, resulting in destroyed homes, the injury of journalists, and the killing of at least 45 civilians from the villages of Tallousa, Shabaa, and Haris. Israeli reconnaissance flights have also violated Lebanese airspace, not just across South Lebanon but further north in parts of Beirut, including the southern suburbs where low flying Israeli drones have become a common feature throughout the last two months.

Sheikh Naim Qassim, Hezbollah’s new Secretary General, has said that the Lebanese Resistance will not remain silent once the ceasefire ends, and should Israeli forces fail to withdraw from South Lebanon, their patience may run out before the close of the 60th day. 

On December 2nd, five days after the implementation of the ceasefire, the Lebanese Resistance released an official statement, its first since the cessation of hostilities, declaring in part that because of the repeated violations, “the Islamic Resistance carried out an initial warning defensive response this evening,” targeting an Israeli army site at Ruwaysat al-Alam in the occupied Lebanese Kfar Shuba Hills. On January 1st, Hezbollah MP Ihab Hamedeh told Al Mayadeen that “on the 61st day after the ceasefire, we will be in a position to make the Israeli enemy taste our wrath” and that, should Israel take any steps against Lebanon from the eastern side, “we will carry out our national duty.”

The violations of the ceasefire have been one sided, with the Lebanese Resistance abiding by the obligations it negotiated in November. “The position of the resistance to remain calm has been an intelligent one,” a man from the village of Khiam told Splinter. “Only time will tell what awaits us, but we are steadfast in our allegiance to our resistance. No one wants the war to reopen, but we are also aware that the United States and Israel wish to see our nation beholden to its whims and its plans, and we reject this kind of humiliation. This is a battle not just for Lebanon and Palestine, but for the heart of this region.”

Hala Jaber, six-time award winning former senior journalist of the Sunday Times, and author of books on Hezbollah and Iraq, told Splinter that should Israel remain inside Lebanese territories, the ceasefire will not hold. “We will see Hezbollah resume resistance with new rules of engagement,” she said. “In other words, it will revert to armed struggle against Israeli occupiers on Lebanese territories, as was the case prior to Israel’s 2000 withdrawal. Only now Hezbollah is much better trained, experienced and equipped than in those earlier years. The right to resist an occupation, including armed struggle, is a universally recognized human right and in doing so, no western country or Lebanese opposition can accuse Hezbollah of aggressing.”

Despite the precariousness of the current situation, not everyone doubts the ceasefire’s durability. Lebanese commentator and author Hassan al Dorr told Splinter that he believes the ceasefire will hold, and that there will be no expansion of the war. This would mean a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese land, and a total cessation of hostilities, which includes the aerial campaigns that still target southern Lebanese villages.

In a statement given to reporters on January 6th, United States envoy Amos Hochstein promised the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon by January 26th. “The Israeli military started its withdrawal from Naqoura, most of the western sector and back into Israel proper today, south of the Blue Line. These withdrawals will continue until all Israeli forces are out of Lebanon completely.” Hochstein made no mention of the nearly daily Israeli ceasefire violations, nor any mention of Israel’s killing of Lebanese civilians, and did not discuss recent comments by Israel that the entity may “reconsider” the terms of its withdrawal. As the ceasefire with Hamas unfolds in the coming weeks, these attacks in Lebanon by Israel in defiance the negotiated ceasefire are worth keeping in mind. 

After visiting the village of Khiam, one of many southern Lebanese villages which has been ravaged by Israeli airstrikes, one can’t help but feel overwhelmed by the destructive possibility of reopening the Northern Front. Villagers across the South, who are slowly rebuilding their homes despite Israel’s attacks and aerial reconnaissance, are confident in the ability of the Lebanese Resistance to defend them, while also remaining hopeful that the ceasefire will hold steady. One thing is certain, should Israel remain beyond the 60-day ceasefire in violation of the agreement, the Lebanese Resistance has vowed to respond, and in the words of Hezbollah Secretary General Sheikh Naim Qassem: “The 61st day will be much different than the 60th.”