Leaked GOP Polling Memo Throws Cold Water on the GOP’s Senate Hopes

The Senate Leadership Fund, the top Republican Senate Super PAC, had its latest round of polling leaked to Politico, and it raises some questions over whether Republicans can cash in on their incredible opportunity to retake the Senate. Per this memo, every single GOP Senate candidate, save for one, is running behind Donald Trump in battleground states, limiting their upside.

Per Cook Political’s Senate Race Ratings, assuming both parties hang on to states rated solid D or solid R, the Republicans just need to win one of Montana, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania (all rated lean D, toss up, or lean R) to guarantee themselves control of the Senate, while also holding on to their own leads in Texas, Nebraska, and Florida, all rated lean R to likely R.

According to this leaked polling memo from the Senate Leadership Fund, the GOP is still favored to retake the Senate, but it looks far less certain than it did just a few months ago, as their candidates are largely dragged down by poor favorability ratings, especially compared to their Democratic opponents. It’s not all bad news in the memo though, as mirroring Kamala Harris’s deteriorating polls of late, they have closed the gap in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to just a point or two. Republicans also continue to lead in Montana, which looks to be the toughest Democratic-held seat to defend outside West Virginia which is a certain Republican pickup, but the GOP has lost ground in Michigan and Maryland, are losing in Ohio, and Ted Cruz is up by just a point in Texas, while Steven Law, the Senate Leadership Fund’s president, wrote that Nebraska is “a serious trouble-spot.”

Dan Osborn is not dragged down by the Democratic Party’s red state baggage, running as an Independent in Nebraska. He is a union president who led a successful strike at the Kellog’s Omaha plant in 2021, and two public polls released in the past month showed him beating GOP incumbent Deb Fischer.  Sen. Fischer released a poll last week which showed her up six points, so it’s very difficult to tell what is going on in this lightly polled race, other than it is clearly not as big of a Republican certainty as it seemed at the beginning of the year.

If Texas or Nebraska surprise and vote out their Republican incumbent, then this GOP polling memo suggests that they may not retake the Senate without a Trump victory. The Republicans are poised to do so as long as they can defend their own incumbents, because this year’s map is filled with vulnerable Democratic seats, but their margins are thin and per this memo, they are becoming thinner.