The Oracle of Nevada Predicts a Narrow Harris Victory in Nevada

Nevada is a unique state in how dependent it is on the early vote and its extreme and unique urban-rural demographic split. There is really no other state like it, which has made it notoriously difficult to poll and predict. Jon Ralston, longtime Nevada journalist now spearheading his own site at The Nevada Independent, has gained acclaim for being able to see through the voting data and into the future, correctly predicting the winner of Nevada each of the last three elections and gaining the nickname, “the Oracle of Nevada.”

Like with the final Ann Selzer poll that sent shockwaves through the political landscape this weekend, everyone is waiting on someone with proven localized knowledge to help give us an idea of what may be coming tomorrow. Ralston’s blog is now out, and here is his prediction and reasoning behind why:

The key to this election has always been which way the non-major-party voters break because they have become the plurality in the state. They are going to make up 30 percent or so of the electorate and if they swing enough towards Harris, she will win Nevada. I think they will, and I’ll tell you why: Many people assume that with the GOP catching up to the Democrats in voter registration that the automatic voter registration plan pushed by Democrats that auto-registers people as nonpartisans (unless they choose a party) at the DMV had been a failure for the party. But I don’t think so. There are a lot of nonpartisans who are closet Democrats who were purposely registered by Democrat-aligned groups as nonpartisans. The machine knows who they are and will get them to vote. It will be just enough to overcome the Republican lead – along with women motivated by abortion and crossover votes that issue also will cause. I know some may think this reflects my well-known disdain for Trump, heart over data. But that is not so. I have often predicted against my own preferences; history does not lie. I just have a feeling she will catch up here, but I also believe – and please remember this – it will not be clear who won on Election Night here, so block out the nattering nabobs of election denialism. It’s going to be very, very close. Prediction: Harris, 48.5 percent; Trump 48.2 percent; others and None of These Candidates, 3.3 percent.

Ralston also predicts that Jacky Rosen will win Nevada’s Senate race fairly easily, 50 percent to 45 percent, defending a key seat for the Democrats, and he doesn’t see the current 3-1 House split between Democrats and Republicans changing.

Unlike the Selzer poll, Nevada doesn’t mean anything for any state except for Nevada. Iowa is interesting because it looks like Wisconsin which looks like Michigan which looks like Pennsylvania. For electoral comparison purposes, Nevada may as well be a different planet from the other 49 states. Ralston’s prediction and his reporting that Democrats and Republicans believe this race is razor-thin is simply just another data point adding to the broader picture emerging nationwide: this is a very close election.