Trump Is Currently Betting the Entire Election on Pennsylvania and Georgia

Earlier this year, before we all fell out of a coconut tree into a new reality where Trump literally dodges bullets, I wrote how Nebraska contains a portal to hell where Trump and Biden could tie based on polling which still suggests this is a very real possibility. Nebraska’s second district, home to its largest and most liberal city Omaha, has gone to both the Dems and GOP two times each in the last four presidential elections, making it a true tossup with immense power to sway this year’s presidential election given that Trump is seemingly shooting for 270 electoral votes, the minimum required to clinch a victory.

Barring some new unseen development in a campaign full of them, this is the map that Trump and Harris will be battling over. It’s a seven state and one city election (I left Maine’s second district open because the latest polling per FiveThirtyEight gives Harris a lead there, but Trump has won it twice).

Based on Donald Trump’s ad spending, his campaign does not seem to believe that this portal to hell is one worth fighting for. In fact, judging just by what each presidential campaign has reserved in battleground states between now and Election Day, Trump seems to believe he has one path to the presidency.

Reservations in Presidential Battlegrounds#PAPol:🔵$70.8M🔴$70.6M#GAPol:🔵$39M🔴$38.7M#MIPol:🔵$55.2M🔴$6.6M#AZPol:🔵$34.9M🔴$9.9M#WIPol:🔵$33.1M🔴$3.5M#NCPol:🔵$26M🔴$2.8M#NVPol:🔵$19.5M🔴$1.4M
Omaha market: 🔵$7M🔴$0

— AdImpact Politics (@AdImpact_Pol) August 30, 2024

Trump can win Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina and still lose. It’s really not inaccurate to say that Pennsylvania will decide this whole thing, because if Trump were to win those aforementioned four swing states but lose Pennsylvania along with the other Midwest tossups, he would lose 270-268 (assuming he carries ME-2 again). If he could find a way to swing NE-2 in his direction, he would win a 269-269 tie thanks to the absolute GOP advantage in House delegations that would surely create one of the largest constitutional crises in American history. If his plan works and he carries both Pennsylvania and Georgia along with North Carolina, the worst he could do is tie.

But the zero dollars in ad spending currently pegged for Omaha suggests that the one poll this cycle putting Harris up five points in NE-2 is accurate or even undershoots Harris’s true popularity in that district. To me, this is a clue because NE-2 opens up more possibilities for Trump should he pick off either of the non-PA Midwest states, and not focusing on it or Wisconsin and Michigan this close to the election suggests they don’t see that path as very available to them. NE-2 also provides pretty much the only path to the presidency for Trump that does not include Pennsylvania (the aforementioned 269-269 tie), so choosing to spend zero dollars there is instructive as to how his team views their chances.

These ad spending figures are not static and there will surely be more investments made along the way in battleground states, but the current plan paints a picture of what the race looks like in each campaign’s eyes. Harris has opened up the map and created another competitive state in North Carolina, while Trump is going all in on Pennsylvania and Georgia, with over eighty percent of his ad spending in those states.

If there is anything we have learned this presidential cycle, it’s that the dynamic can change very quickly from month to month, but as of right now, Trump really seems to believe he only has one path to the White House: through Pennsylvania and Georgia. Harris is making him play defense across the board, and the vast disparity in ad spending in states like Michigan suggest he has accepted that fighting for some swing states is not the best use of his campaign funds. If Trump has his way, this election may come down to Pennsylvania, and if this year unfolds like every year except for one since 1988 (and Nebraska does not open its portal to hell), Trump will not be president.