Welcome to Splinter’s All-Day Election Live Blog

Welcome to the first election with new Splinter between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The first article that I wrote as Editor-in-Chief was Should You Vote for Joe Biden? and if you told me I published that ten years ago, my body’s sense of the passage of time would think you were right. But I did not write that in 2014, I actually wrote it in March. Ten years ago I was authoring my lefty shitposter origin story, scamming selling for the banks who skim about three percent off the economy for the pleasure of being the middleman between business and customer.

This year, which is somehow 2024 and not 2034, is finally approaching its close. I fear what is on the other side of tonight, as there are a wide range of outcomes where the real slog is ahead of us, but I won’t raise those concerns today. Today is a day to celebrate small victories. This is a mile marker proving our endurance in the face of unspeakable chaos. Look at what we just went through these past four months. We’re here. We can do anything now, and let’s definitely do something else tomorrow.

This blog exists for two reasons. One, to provide updates on important election developments and news throughout the day until midnight-ish Mountain Time when I reach my threshold for pain tolerance–but don’t confuse me with Steve Kornacki or anything–I’m not going scab on the NYT Tech Union and replacing the needle. We’ve got you covered with big developments and some local and climate stuff the national networks may have missed.

Second, it’s here for staff to drop observations or jokes or comments or content any other kind of post that comes to mind throughout the day. In short, this is a place to hang out on election day well into the sicko hours on the east coast, so check back here and at Jezebel periodically throughout the day for news and insight or “insight,” and debate in the comments as we cover whatever the hell is about to happen to all of us.

Jacob Weindling (11 am MST): The first election results are in from famed small town in New Hampshire, Dixville Notch. Everyone woke up this morning to a tied popular vote. All six Nikki Haley primary voters who broke for both Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton in 2020 and 2016 split their vote between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris 3-3, proving again that this election is so close that you can look at whatever trends you want and believe whatever you want like some crazy notion that the Democrats are going to win North Carolina because of the Nude Africa forums.

Dave Levitan (11:50 am MST): Who wants to go out when it’s raining? Terrible. Related, decades of research have shown that bad weather can affect election turnout, which seems particularly relevant in an election where turnout is everything and “convincing people” is kind of secondary.

A meta-analysis published in 2023 found that rainfall can suppress turnout by almost one percentage point per centimeter of rain, while more sunshine can increase it. Younger voters are far more susceptible to the vagaries of weather — six times as much as older voters, actually. That said, the impact of bad weather seems to be diminishing in recent years, in particular as mail-in voting and early voting have ramped up.

Anyway, it’s pretty nice out today, if you want to generalize across a 3,000-mile-wide country. There are some storms likely in the midwest, which could mean trouble in swing states like Michigan and Wisconsin, but otherwise… not bad! It is currently 73 degrees and sunny in Philadelphia, an impressive bit of November warmth. It will be about the same in Phoenix today, strangely enough. The latest hurricane is still inching its way through the southern Caribbean. Go vote.

Jacob Weindling (1 pm MST): Could be something, could be nothing, but, uh, DJT, Trump’s meme stock, crashed. Hard. So hard they had to pause trading on it. They do this when markets or stocks get too volatile and is basically a Wall Street version of putting a kid in time out to cool down. DJT has rebounded since they resumed trading, but it fell 17 percent in five minutes (talk about a shitcoin), and as of this writing, is up 9 percent since trading resumed, but still a little less than 9 percent down from where it began its descent to hell. You can see what that looked like here.

Dave Levitan (1:15 pm MST): The New York Times Tech Guild is on strike as of Monday. And apparently, that might mean the death of the Times’ election needle, since some of the 600 or so staffers in the Guild are the ones who make things like that work. So contrary to the many warnings out there, some victories do come early on election day.

Jacob Weindling (5:10 MST): We are off and running as Kamala Harris wins Vermont, while the Associated Press has called Indiana and Kentucky for Trump. You’ll never believe it, but Georgia is too close to call.

Jacob Weindling (5:20 MST): Jake Tapper is already under my skin, talking about candidates in the lead with three freaking percent of the vote in. Someone in cable news needs to kill this trope once and for all. There is no “lead” here, it’s just how they’re counting a big pile of votes! You can’t count them all at once! This is how counting works! I can already tell I am going to go mad tonight!

Jacob Weindling (5:55 MST): Let’s start the night off with some good news, as More Perfect Union notes that Kentucky is projected to reject Amendment 2, “an amendment that would allow the legislature to direct public money to unaccountable private schools in the form of vouchers.”

Jacob Weindling (6:00 MST): More good news, as top one percent Nude Africa poster Mark Robinson has lost the governor’s race for North Carolina, according to Fox News. What this means for the presidential election is anyone’s guess. We’re just watching people count votes now, while a bunch of data from a bunch of states just came in as people will parse it over the coming hour for what it means.

Jared Yates Sexton (6:25 MST): While exit polls are not necessarily guides to how electoral results will shake out, there’s a lot to learn from the numbers coming out of the 2024 Election. Surprisingly, concerns over “Democracy” (73%) led the list of issues, followed by the economy, abortion, and immigration. You could argue that this portends a decent night for Kamala Harris, but, even if that is the case, the portrait being painted is disastrously bad for both of the major parties and, well, the United States of America.

It is true that democracy is under threat. Donald Trump and his gaggle of criminals are obviously dangers in this area, but the feeling of dread lies with something deeper. For decades now the wealth class of the United States has waged an unending war on democratic rights, relying on denial of voting protections, aggressive gerrymandering, the continued use of the Electoral College and the worsening corruption of the Supreme Court, both of which were minoritarian institutions in design and purpose from the very beginning.

Even more telling are the numbers regarding the direction of the country. “The economy” is a phrase thrown around haphazardly, but it truly means the experience of living in a country with worsening exploitation and declining standards of living. From this, the 72% of responders who said the country is off-course and heading down a bad path takes more shape. In this election we have seen very little in terms of what America should look like, or what it could look like. Sensationalized battles over immigrants committing crimes and eating pets took the spotlight, largely because Donald Trump is undeniably declining in real-time and the Democratic Party has aligned itself firmly with the status quo.

What we have watched, in this election, is largely a contest that has not addressed the concerns of the vast majority of Americans. Being presented with either handing the reins over tech fascist billionaires or else continuing down this sordid, destructive path doesn’t even come close to answering these concerns. More or less, we’re seeing a showdown that could be incredibly close between two parties that have practically agreed not to compete over the issues that actually resonate with voters. Instead, it might very well hinge on how many people see Trump as “too extreme,” which is an issue, but far from what the numbers show is the priority of a clear and desperate majority.

Dave Levitan (7:05 MST): MSNBC has a Kornacki Cam. I am aware there is a long-running Cult of Kornacki, but I confess I am confused. This feed just features a constant shot of our boy as he pokes endlessly at his digital maps, and shuffles papers around on a desk like he is engaged in the world’s strangest game of three-card monte. I am not sure what this adds to the already saturated coverage. This has been your Kornacki Cam update.

Jacob Weindling (7:45 MST): Georgia’s Fulton County police say they have received 32 bomb threats today, with five leading to temporary closures and extensions of voting hours. This is election interference right out in the open, and in a razor-thin election like this, every little bit matters. If you’re still in line, stay in line.

Jacob Weindling (8:25 MST): I know the vibes aren’t great right now, and I am still in the “it’s too early to know much” column in the presidential race, but one thing is becoming clear: Ann Selzer, polling god, put out one of the most inaccurate polls of her career. The Harris +3 in Iowa result she published over the weekend looks way, way off, as Iowa looks like it will go for Trump by about 8 or so. The gender gap she revealed in that poll is holding and so it still did contain some insight, but there are a lot of other developments tonight that help Trump to counteract these gains Harris made with women, mirroring the broader electoral picture right now. The most accurate prediction I made this morning is that I would not be surprised if every swing state was decided by one percent or less.

Jacob Weindling (9:10 MST): Vibes continue to deteriorate, as Harris runs behind Biden in the Midwest, and she is struggling to win the south end of Dearborn, Michigan, home to a majority Arab American population and one that Biden won with 88 percent of the vote. The genocide in Gaza supported by the Biden-Harris administration is very clearly putting their presidency in jeopardy tonight. History will not remember its architects fondly.

Jacob Weindling (9:50 MST): Folks, I’m running out of things to say as this just keeps looking more like what it is: a political realignment towards Republicans. Harris is on track to under-perform Biden by 5 points in Minnesota, providing more data to suggest that Vice Presidents just simply don’t matter. The only good news out there right now is save for Florida (where the measure “lost” with well over 50 percent of the vote), reproductive rights are doing well on the ballot. As Jezebel noted, my home state of Colorado overwhelmingly passed Amendment 79, which both enshrined a woman’s right to an abortion and repealed a 40-year-old ban. Deep red Missouri also voted to end the state’s abortion ban, as America continues to communicate that it is a very confused nation.

Jacob Weindling (10:45 MST): Well I know I promised to stay up to midnight MST covering election developments, but I don’t think there’s much left to say at this point. It’s going to take a miracle at this point for Kamala Harris to win the presidency, and we’ll end this live-blog on this somber note, as America has clearly communicated to the Democrats that they are not the party the Dems believe themselves to be.