What’s Going on With…Ukraine’s Invasion of Russia?

Last week, Russia declared a state of emergency in its Kursk region following reports of a cross-border raid by Ukrainian forces. Ukraine itself was pretty quiet about that until this weekend, when it confirmed that Ukrainian troops had launched a stunning incursion into Russian territory, opening up a new front in this more than two-year-long war.

Ukraine’s Kursk offensive is still unfolding, and the full scope of Ukraine’s operation and its endgame is still very unclear. But on August 6, thousands of well-trained and well-equipped Ukrainian troops surprised Russia, breaking through border defenses and advancing rapidly, seizing dozens of villages and some key infrastructure, and imprisoning Russian soldiers along the way. Ukraine’s top commander, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said his forces now control more than 400 square miles of Russian territory, and more than 80 settlements, though these figures are difficult to fully verify. On Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said troops captured the strategic town of Sudzha, next to a key gas terminal. Ukraine says it is setting up a military command office there to help maintain order and protect civilian safety.

Russia evacuated tens of thousands from Kursk and other border regions and has vowed to put down the “terrorist attack.” 

“The enemy will certainly get an appropriate response, and all the goals facing us will undoubtedly be achieved,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said Monday. He said Ukraine staged this attack to get a bargaining chip for peace negotiations, and he accused the West of “fighting us with the hands of the Ukrainians.”

Russia has acknowledged that Ukraine has taken control of territory, but far less than Kyiv’s assessment. Russian defense officials said Tuesday it had halted Ukraine’s further expansion in Kursk, though the regional government continues to order more civilian evacuations.

Ukraine has an incentive to brag about its successes, Russia wants to downplay its failures, and both want to massage the narrative in this very fluid movement. But, so far, Ukraine might have the better story. The Kursk incursion represents Ukraine’s most audacious attempt yet to bring the war directly to Russia, and to Vladimir Putin. The operation embarrasses Putin, and his military, which was caught off-guard and ill-prepared. It provides a much-needed morale boost to Ukraine, and to its exhausted and depleted army.

Over the past few months, Russian troops have slowly but steadily gained more ground in eastern Ukraine, with Ukraine struggling to halt or push back Moscow’s advance. This high-stakes Kursk operation looks very much like an attempt to shake up the current trajectory of the war, by potentially forcing Russia to relocate troops from the Donbas to deal with Kursk and by trying to recapture some Ukrainian momentum.

It remains an incredibly risky gamble by Ukraine – and whether it pays off will depend on what Ukraine actually seeks to achieve, and how Russia responds. “They want to change the situation and to change the course of the war,” said Oleg Ignatov, senior analyst for Russia with The International Crisis Group. “They understand that they will have to behave in a creative way.” But as he, and other experts and analysts emphasized, it’s still far too early to tell what the outcome of this operation will be, let alone whether it will change the course of the conflict. Even if it does, there are no guarantees that it will break in Ukraine’s favor. 

“Maybe we’re in the beginning of the Ukrainian operation,” Ignatov added. “Maybe that we are in the middle of the Ukrainian operation, and maybe we are in the end of the Ukrainian operation. We don’t know the results.”

How Ukraine Pulled This Off – And Why

Ukraine has attacked inside Russia before, including raids in Belgorod in the spring of 2023. But these tended to be pretty short-lived, and involved pro-Ukrainian Russian exiles and volunteer fighters.

Kursk was a full-scale operation of the regular Ukrainian army, with an estimated 10,000 troops. It took extensive planning and covert preparation. As the New York Times reported, in recent weeks, Ukraine had quietly been building up troops and equipment in Sumy, the Ukrainian region across the border from Kursk. Russians at the border had sent a report to the military about these activities, suggesting a possible attack, but it was apparently dismissed by the higher ups. 

Ukraine’s offensive benefited from extreme operational secrecy. Even some of those Ukrainian troops who participated in it were only told of their mission right before it began. It caught Russia unprepared, with Ukrainian forces recounting that they faced weak resistance at the border. “We killed many of them on the first day,” a Ukrainian soldier with the 82nd Air Assault Brigade told The Financial Times. “Because they were unarmed and didn’t expect us.”

The attack was also a shock because not many observers believed Ukraine had the ability to stage this kind of offensive right now. Its troops are struggling on defense in eastern Ukraine, and the army is worn down and low on ammunition and equipment, a hangover from the United States’s delay in approving Ukrainian military funding. Not only that, but in Kursk, Ukraine appears to have flexed the kind of coordinated maneuver warfare it often failed to pull off in last summer’s counteroffensive. This stretch of the Russian border was less heavily guarded, and Russia’s mines and defenses were much thinner here, but Ukraine used Western-made tanks and combat vehicles to blitz into Russia. At the same time, Ukraine used its air defense and electronic warfare “to basically put a bubble over these advancing formations to protect them,” said Patrick Bury, Senior Associate Professor in Security at the University of Bath. 

This allowed Ukraine to break through and to keep pushing forward even as Russia’s response has intensified. That is not to say Ukraine is simply just cruising; Russia is bombing positions and Ukraine has suffered losses. But Ukraine is still progressing into Kursk, more than a week into this campaign. “On the tactical level, this has been a very successful operation,” said Nick Reynolds, Research Fellow, Land Warfare at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). 

Launching a successful tactical operation is one thing, changing the actual strategic picture is another. But a wild, potentially escalatory offensive is one way to try. 

As Ukraine has indicated, it has two big tasks ahead. “The aim is to stretch the positions of the enemy, to inflict maximum losses and to destabilize the situation in Russia as they are unable to protect their own border,” a Ukrainian official said Saturday, when Ukraine began acknowledging the scale of their cross-border attack.

“Stretching the positions of the enemy” is an attempt to divert Russian resources and troops from the frontlines of eastern Ukraine, relieving some of the pressure on Ukrainian armed forces there. Both Ukrainian and U.S. officials have said Russia has moved some troops from Ukraine, but it’s not clear how significant their relocation is. The Institute for the Study of War says that Russia appears to be relying on conscripts and elements of some regular and irregular units pulled from “less critical sectors of the frontline“ to respond to the Kursk offensive.

That is, they’re trying to avoid pulling soldiers from the most critical spots on the front.

As for the destabilization of the enemy, as Bury said, Ukraine achieved panic and chaos in the short-term. This is all very humiliating for Vladimir Putin and his top military officials. The displacement of tens of thousands of civilians – along with some Russian-reported civilian casualties – brings Russia’s war home to Russians in a very big way. In general though, Putin and regional officials are trying not to freak out too much, insisting they have everything under control. Putin has vowed to crush the “provocation,” and has framed it as something of an act of desperation, a Ukrainian attempt to gain some leverage in a war it was losing. 

And while it all looks very bad for Putin, it does not yet – emphasis on yet – look genuinely threatening to his regime. That could change if Ukraine advances much farther into Kursk, and Russia bungles the effort to stop them. “One of the reasons for unpredictability is just because the Russian army is ultimately not very good, for all the reasons that we’ve observed over the last two and a half years,” Reynolds said. “The Russian military has serious problems, and I think ultimately, that lack of a clear rationale for why people are fighting or why people within the military and defense system should actually put in effort or initiative.”

This operation has undoubtedly given Ukraine a much-needed vibe shift after months of a grinding and grim battle in the Donbas. How sustainable that is, again, depends on how this all plays out, but it’s a useful political tool for a public growing weary of war. There is also kind of a karmic release here, with Kyiv now responsible for establishing humanitarian corridors on Russian territory and Ukrainians joking about a referendum in Kursk, referring to the sham votes Russia set up in contested regions of Ukraine. Volodymyr Artiukh, the head of Ukraine’s military administration in Sumy, told the Economist that this is a “cold shower” for the Russians.

“They are feeling what we have been feeling for years, since 2014. This is a historical event.”

Ukraine is also sending a reminder to international partners that Ukraine’s still got it, a message that comes at a time when that support, particularly in the U.S., is in doubt. Ukraine has used Western-made equipment in Kursk, pushing up against the restrictions the U.S. and its allies have put on Kyiv when it comes to how its weapons can be used on Russian territory. Ukraine may see this as a chance “to make the West understand Russia doesn’t have clear red lines,” said Ignatov. It also shows the West that, if it gives Ukraine all the weapons it needs, and Ukraine is unleashed, it still has a chance. So far, the U.S. and some of its partners don’t seem to be making a huge deal about Ukraine using their stuff in Kursk this right now, but both the U.S. and the U.K. have indicated their policies have not yet changed. 

Where Does This Go From Here?

Ukraine has thrown a wild card into this war. But the big question is: how does this end?

Ukraine has described the aims of the operation, but has remained quiet on its ultimate objective. Does Ukraine simply want to prove to Russia that it can attack within its territory and seize the initiative? Does Ukraine want to control – and defend – territory inside of Russia? How does Russia’s response – in Kursk, but elsewhere on the frontlines – influence Ukraine’s decisions?

An official with Ukraine’s foreign ministry said Kyiv has no intention of holding Russian territory, but the Ukrainian armed forces have remained tight-lipped on this. President Zelenskyy, in a video posted to his Telegram on Wednesday, talked about the need for “security, humanitarian aid, creation of military administrations, if necessary.” And again, Syrskyi confirmed Ukraine established a military command office in Sudzha “to maintain law and order and meet the priority needs of the population in the controlled territories.”

Ukraine may be able to make significant territorial gains, but sustaining those may be far more challenging. The deeper Ukraine goes, the harder it may be to maintain logistic and supply lines. But if Ukraine could do so, as Reynolds said, “it would be an interesting bargaining chip.”

Another big question is how Vladimir Putin will respond, both militarily and politically. Right now, Putin is largely approaching this as a crisis that needs to be solved, not a full-on catastrophe or a major detour in the war that he sees Russia as winning. “What will be the Russian counter measure? Will they try to banish Ukrainians demonstratively, or they will just swallow this and continue to behave as they behave right now?” Ignatov said.

Putin has always framed his invasion of Ukraine as vital for Russia’s security. Ukraine’s incursion into Russia is part of its self-defense, but Putin could seize on it to help him reiterate that case. Ukrainian troops, in American-made combat vehicles, besieging Russian cities could be pretty good fodder for the kind of propaganda you need to rally your public, even to accept unpopular moves like another mobilization. 

At the same time, Putin has tried to insulate a big share of the Russian public from the burdens of this conflict. Ukraine’s invasion shatters that pact. Tanks rolling through Russian settlements, panicked residents fleeing — it makes it much harder for Putin to maintain the illusion that Russians do not need to sacrifice for this so-called “special military operation. But that may also make him want to downplay this incursion, rather than let it become a symbol of the folly of his invasion of Ukraine.